Brazil Election: Undecided and Abstaining Voters Could Decide Runoff

The right mixes religion and faith, whereas I think those things should be separate, while (Lula’s) Workers’ Party has robbed the country, said Ana Beatriz Bon Raggio, a 19-year-old studying theater in Rio de Janeiro, capturing the widespread disillusionment ahead of Brazil’s presidential election. With more than 33 million voters skipping the polls in the first round, both left-leaning incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and far-right challenger Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro are racing to capture millions of undecided citizens and uncommitted ballots before the Oct. 25 election.

Neither candidate cleared the 50% threshold during Sunday’s first round of voting, setting the stage for a tense runoff. Bolsonaro enters the final stretch holding distinct advantages: he secured roughly 2 million more votes than Lula on Sunday, while the third-, fourth-, and fifth-place finishers—Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado—all hail from the right of the political spectrum. Caiado, who captured approximately 2.6 million votes, formally endorsed Bolsonaro on Tuesday, while Cury and Santos stated they would remain neutral.

Corruption Charges and Economic Anxiety Fuel Voter Hesitation

Voter hesitation is deeply anchored in political history and financial strain. Bolsonaro faces active corruption investigations, while Lula served a 19-month imprisonment on corruption and money laundering charges that were later annulled. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup following his 2022 electoral defeat to Lula.

Economic anxiety further complicates the electorate’s choices. Alexandre Moreira, a 21-year-old university student juggling three part-time jobs, cast a blank ballot in the first round but leans toward Lula for the runoff because he views the incumbent as open-minded. But things are more expensive, and I’m feeling it, Moreira said, pointing to official data from Brazil’s National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels showing gasoline prices climbing from 5 reais ($1) per liter in January 2023 to 6.54 reais ($1.31) by September 2026.

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Brazil Sees Highest First Round Abstention Rate Since 1998

Sunday’s first round saw an abstention rate of 21%, representing over 33 million citizens who stayed home. According to data from Brazil’s electoral court, this marks the highest abstention percentage for a first round since 1998, with non-voting rates climbing steadily since 2006. Voting is mandatory for literate citizens aged 18 to 70, with abstention incurring a minor fine.

Abstention of 20% isn’t ideal, Kassio Nunes Marques, president of Brazil’s electoral court, said following Sunday’s vote, adding that officials intend to refine mechanisms to reduce non-participation in the second round. Carolina Almeida de Paula, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro State University, noted that while public attention fixates on citizens wearing the red attire of Lula’s movement or the yellow and green national flag of the Bolsonaro camp, a significant portion of the populace feels alienated by the aggressive polarization. Datafolha polling indicated roughly 11% of voters were undecided ahead of the first round, compared to just 2% at the same juncture in 2022.

With three weeks remaining until ballots are cast on Oct. 25, electoral authorities and campaign teams continue efforts to mobilize millions of alienated, blank, and abstaining voters.

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