TOKYO (Archyde.com) – The Tokyo stock market is expected to be in a slump this week. The market is likely to remain unstable due to concerns about the tightening of US monetary policy and the resulting global economic recession. Although the supply and demand instability related to the end of the month and the beginning of the month has receded, investors are expected to be difficult to move and the market will be nervous because the release of the US employment statistics for September will be announced on the weekend.
The expected range for the Nikkei average is 25,500-26,300.
Until recently, there was a view that Japanese stocks had suffered relatively little decline compared to European and American stocks and had maintained their superiority. This is because the strong dollar/weak yen is expected to benefit the export industry, and the reopening of major countries from the corona crisis will start in earnest from here on, and corporate earnings are expected to be strong. However, the Nikkei 225 has risen in the United States, saying, “As far as the US Apple’s suspension of production increase is concerned, it is no longer possible to say that Japan alone is the only economy that is safe and stock prices will rise,” said Toyo Securities strategist Ryuta Otsuka. There are an increasing number of situations where stock prices fall.
Regarding the recent decline, many people believe that the market price has been oversold due to the demand for selling index funds accompanying the replacement of Nikkei 225 stocks. In addition to being a bargain in terms of variations, it is possible that expectations for reopening will increase due to the announcement of the retail industry’s financial results in February.
However, “Eiji Kinouchi, Chief Technical Analyst at Daiwa Securities Co., Ltd., said, “Even though the special factors causing the deterioration of supply and demand have disappeared, the environment surrounding the stock market will not suddenly turn for the better.” A strategist at a domestic research institute commented, “I’m also concerned about the timing of when warnings about the financial results of US companies are likely to appear.”
Regarding the supply and demand side, “The recent plunge has hurt the pockets of individual investors considerably.In a situation where large institutional investors cannot move before the employment statistics, we cannot expect the participation of individuals who are normally active in the rebound market.” (Amemiya) Kyoko Amemiya, president of the Research Institute) is also heard, and it seems that the situation will become stronger before the announcement of the rice index.
From a technical point of view, the June 20th low of 25,520.23 yen is a guideline for the lower price. If bearishness continues, this battle will attract attention, but “There is a possibility that sentiment will turn for the better with just one trigger. Due to high volatility, the speed of recovery will likely be faster.” (Tokai Tokyo Research Center)・ Senior strategist Takashi Nakamura) is also heard.