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Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s visit yesterday to Baabda Palace brought a surprise by announcing an agreement with President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, to open an extraordinary session of the House of Representatives, and that he would invite the Council of Ministers to convene to receive the 2022 budget (within two days), which is ready, according to Mikati’s statement.
The surprise comes in light of a complete blockage of the political horizon with talk in the past two days that no government session is on the horizon, especially with the tension that erupted between Hezbollah on the one hand and President Mikati against the background of President Mikati’s response to the speech of His Eminence the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who summoned In a fiery response from the party, he said, “It would have been more appropriate for President Mikati to rise up for his dignity.”
It is worth noting that President Mikati had stated, after President Michel Aoun’s speech on the 27th of last month, that he would not call for a cabinet session for fear that the government might explode from within. What has changed a week ago, for Mikati to call his government to convene?
Nothing suggests a change in the political facts, oh God, unless there is a deal that some have talked about and provides for the reactivation of the Council of Ministers in exchange for signing the opening of an extraordinary session of the House of Representatives. However, the analysis shows that this deal – if it is correct – gives the President of the Republic and his team more than what the other team gets – i.e. the Shiite duo, specifically the Amal movement. In the details, the Free Patriotic Movement will win on a silver platter the appointments file, which is the last card owned by the movement in the context of its political struggle with other parties, especially Christianity. Therefore, it is unlikely that Speaker Nabih Berri would accept to present this gift to the President of the Republic without there being an alternative (it cannot be just the opening of an extraordinary session of the House of Representatives!) “Mahrez”, especially since the petition signed by the representatives to request the President of the Republic to open an exceptional session of Parliament The parliament has become almost complete, and thus the President of the Republic is obligated to sign a decree to open an extraordinary session of the House of Representatives.
Assuming that there is a cabinet session that will be called – according to Prime Minister Mikati’s statement – to approve the budget and approve some financial decisions that release the financial benefits that Mikati had previously promised to public sector employees and public administrations, there is a scenario from two and no third:
The first scenario stipulates that the Shiite ministers do not attend the meeting, which is in violation of President Berri’s “charter,” which most likely will not accept its results due to the absence of this charter, even if a quorum is secured (which is unlikely).
The second scenario states that the Minister of Finance will attend the meeting and vote on financial decisions (budget, benefits,…). But the President of the Republic, who enjoys a constitutional right to raise issues outside the agenda without the right to vote, may propose dismissing both the financial prosecutor and the governor of the Banque du Liban… So where is President Mikati’s guarantee that his government will not explode from within?
These two scenarios lead to other conclusions: (1) There is a complete and integrated deal that has been agreed upon between the political force and may include appointments and other other matters, including the case of Judge Bitar, which may anger the international community and therefore it is unlikely that such a deal will be without no one knows about it; Or (2) there is a trap that is being set up for the Shiite duo by carrying the burden of financial failure, which may be very costly at the political level, given the great skill that President Berri enjoys in political work and his ability to pull the rug out from under the government (for example, the government of President Hassan Diab) .
So, from the foregoing, we see that there is a hidden loophole in Prime Minister Mikati’s announcement of his intention to call for a cabinet meeting. What is this pole?
In fact, Prime Minister Mikati’s statement to invite the Council of Ministers faces great obstacles, as everyone knows that the direct reason for the suspension of the cabinet sessions – that is, the case of Judge Al-Bitar – has not been resolved, and therefore it is unlikely that the Shiite duo would accept to attend a cabinet session for one time and then resume the delay.
In fact, analyzes indicate that President Mikati knows that the agreement with the International Monetary Fund, which is almost ready according to the available information, will encounter many objections that Prime Minister Mikati will not be able to overcome in the cabinet. In addition to this, the financial, administrative and judicial appointments that the Free Patriotic Movement is eager to approve in the Council of Ministers, which give it no less than 61 positions (between the first and second categories) on more than 150 vacant and non-vacant positions, include changing many of the employees that the President and his team want to change. Such as the position of the Financial Prosecutor, the Discriminatory Prosecutor, the President of the Supreme Judicial Council, the Governor of the Banque du Liban, the Director of the Internal Security Forces and others. Will Speaker Berri accept this gift to President Aoun at the end of his term?
The emerging crisis between Prime Minister Mikati on the one hand and Hezbollah on the other has deepened and deepened the gap that prevents the cabinet from meeting, as it is expected that this crisis will have a direct impact on the government’s work – even if it does meet – especially at the level of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, which remain deliberations. The government with him is secret until now, which is not to the liking of the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah, and threatens complications that are much more difficult than a meeting to approve a budget that is supposed to contain the reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund, which is a prerequisite for signing an aid program with it.
It remains to say that in light of a dollar exceeding thirty thousand Lebanese pounds in the parallel market, the Lebanese citizen has become living at the pace of this dollar, which has become a reference for the pricing of all commodities and merchandise, which makes his life on the stock exchange of speculators tampering with his food security under the eyes of security and control agencies that do not have the decision to prosecute violators Protected by powerful people.
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