Lhe inflation could even become a structural factor, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP), Ahmed Lahlimi. In any case, it remains strongly felt by the citizens. Daily. The latest figures from the HCP attest to this.
The consumer price index recorded, during the month of June 2022, an increase of 0.5% compared to the previous month. This variation is the result of the rise of 0.1% in the index of food products and 0.8% in the index of non-food products.
Compared to the same month of the previous year, the consumer price index recorded an increase of 7.2% during the month of June 2022, a consequence of the increase in the index of food products by 10.6 % and that of non-food products by 4.9%.
Under these conditions, the core inflation indicator, which excludes products at volatile prices and products at public prices, would have increased by 0.8% in June 2022 compared to May. 2022 and 6.4% compared to June 2021.
Very expensive products
Shopping carts are getting more and more expensive to fill. Virtually all prices went up. Thus, the increases in food products observed between May and June 2022 mainly concern “Oils and fats” with 2.7%, “Milk, cheese and eggs” with 2.1%, “Mineral waters, soft drinks, juices fruits and vegetables” with 0.8% and “Coffee, tea and cocoa” with 0.4%.
For non-food products, the increase mainly concerned the prices of “Fuels” with 9.2%. Prices at the pump are indeed still very high: a liter of diesel sells for 15.80 DH against 17 DH for gasoline.
On fuel, the government still refuses to waive or temporarily suspend taxes in order to support motorists, as several countries around the world have done (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, etc.).
The aid is rather granted to road hauliers: the amount of the 4th aid has moreover been increased by 40%. And it is an overall envelope of 1.4 billion dirhams that has been paid so far to road transport professionals. This will not prevent households from losing purchasing power.
Inflation still at its highest in Morocco
At least two essential factors are helping to keep the level of inflation in the Kingdom high over the coming months:
– Tensions in the oil market will persist due to sanctions against Russia and an insufficient increase in production by OPEC member countries. The price of crude oil should thus reach nearly $100/b in 2022 and 2023, an increase of 50% compared to 2021, according to the World Bank.
-Overall, the rise in the prices of energy materials leads to the rise in the prices of other basic products.
-The disruption of production and supply chains will affect food availability and the incomes and livelihoods of vulnerable populations.
“This imported inflation should reach an exceptional level this year, like most countries in the world, which should suddenly affect purchasing power and weigh on the profitability of some productive sectors”, notably indicates the HCP. Who estimates that inflation should increase by nearly 4.9% in 2022 after 3.2% in 2021 and 0.1% in 2020. And, in the end, household purchasing power should fall by 1 .5% in 2022 instead of an average growth of 1.1% between 2015 and 2019.
In its latest monitoring report on the economic situation in Morocco, made public on July 20, the World Bank made the same observation, however counting on a higher level of inflation in 2022. According to the institution, “even if it is mitigated by subsidies, consumer price inflation is expected to accelerate to 5.3% this year from just 1.4% in 2021. This is likely to erode the purchasing power of poor households. poorest and most vulnerable.
The poorest clink glasses
All countries suffer from the high level of inflation, with differentiated impacts that ultimately affect billions of people. The United Nations trade and development body, UNCTAD, estimates that billions of people are facing the biggest cost of living crisis in a generation, due to rising food prices. food and energy. And the most vulnerable consumers are in dire straits.
UNCTAD analysis shows that a 10% increase in food prices will lower the incomes of the poorest families by 5%, roughly equivalent to the amount these families would normally spend on care health.
This international situation requires governments to make delicate trade-offs: curb galloping inflation by raising interest rates or preserve growth by trying to keep the economic machine running smoothly. For now, Morocco has chosen the second option, the Central Bank having decided not to increase its key rate and to keep it unchanged in order to support the recovery.
F. Ouriaghli