Lu Yuren-Betting on the mainland’s epidemic control shift is like buying big and small|Financial High Tea | Headline Daily

Last week, the People’s Bank of China announced a RRR cut, but Hong Kong stocks were startled when the market opened. The Hang Seng Index fell by 700 points. unexpected.

The epidemic situation in the mainland continues, and the new phenomenon is that in addition to the tightening of prevention and control, there are people protesting in some areas, and foreign media even report on the spot. Hong Kong stocks fell at the opening of the market. The market originally thought that the good news of the RRR cut was confirmed to be withdrawn. In addition, the RMB exchange rate has softened after the release of water. However, seeing the sharp decline, it feels a bit strange. I worry that the mainland will vigorously tighten prevention and control, especially in Shenzhen. Strict social distancing practices have been reported.

Near noon, the decline of the Hang Seng Index gradually narrowed. The stock prices of the two leading A-share stocks, Moutai and Ningde Times, stabilized, and the decline of the ChiNext Board also decreased. The market began to speculate whether the mainland would experience anti-epidemic fatigue in response to the public situation, and it would go downhill. , relax prevention and control? The index gradually rebounded and rebounded to 17,000 points.
Valuation down is better than high pursuit

The market is looking forward to the mainland’s consideration of people’s sentiments to relax the epidemic prevention measures. When the central government recently issued epidemic prevention measures, it emphasized that precise implementation should not be overweight, which shows that it is alert to the impact of excessive epidemic prevention. The market believes that the mainland is facing a moment of choice between people’s livelihood economy and insisting on dynamic clearing. This statement seems to be too one-or-two. The anti-epidemic fatigue of the people in the mainland has triggered mass activities, which will definitely attract the attention of the highest level and speed up the review of policies. As for whether a one-size-fits-all relaxation will be triggered, it is still difficult to determine for the time being. Some estimates believe that it will take a few more days to see a clearer trend. Funds fall below 17,000 points to enter the market. I believe that there is a greater chance of speculation ahead.

From the mid-line point of view, it is imperative for the Mainland to reduce its economy due to the constraints of epidemic prevention, but the time and method are yet to be determined. Hong Kong stocks have fallen again, and valuations have provided some support, so strong funds will enter the market immediately. This is worthwhile. The semi-speculative and semi-investment game with a reasonable rate is better than chasing high when seeing a market rising.

Under the control of the epidemic, mainland catering stocks bucked the market and performed well. Xiabuxiabu (520) soared 8% to close at 6.34 yuan; Jiumaojiu (9922) rose nearly 6% to close at 15.3 yuan; Haidilao ( 6862) rose nearly 7% to close at 14.78 yuan; Hailunsi (9869) soared 9% to close at 10.44 yuan; Naixue’s Tea (2150) rose 6% to close at 5.06 yuan; Zhou Hei Ya (1458) rose 6%, It closed at 4.2 yuan, and China Resources Beer (291) also rose 4.6% to close at 48.25 yuan.

Mainland catering stocks have fallen and speculative. In contrast, the local catering stock Café de Coral (341) has a profit attributable to shareholders of 108 million yuan for the half year ended September, up 33.8% year-on-year. If the subsidies provided by the government in response to the epidemic were not taken into account, the group’s profit fell by 16.5%. Basic earnings per share were 18.8 cents, interim dividend was 10 cents. In the first half of the year, Café de Coral was still hit by the fifth wave of the epidemic, and it was able to maintain profitability to reflect the resilience of the business.
Café de Coral’s performance shows that its resilience is stable enough

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In the fourth quarter of this year, local consumer confidence was sluggish. The management of Café de Coral estimated that there would still be challenges. It is believed that there will be strong growth in the second quarter of next year. If the mainland relaxes the epidemic control and the flow of people in China and Hong Kong resumes, Café de Coral will benefit. At present, the company is profitable and pays dividends. Compared with mainland catering stocks, although the stimulus is lower, it is more stable.

The proportion of catering stocks has a limited impact on the market. The index is mainly driven by heavyweight financial and technology stocks. The Hang Seng Index saw a low of 16833 points yesterday, and then stabilized repeatedly. It closed at a near-day high of 17297 points. billion. The State Index closed at 5,872 points, down 98 points; the KSCI fell 67 points, to close at 3,432 points. Financial and technology stocks were under pressure. Ping An Insurance (2318) fell 4.6% to close at 41.85 yuan; China Life (2628) fell 4% to close at 10.76 yuan; AIA (1299) fell 3% to close at 72.3 yuan. Many technology and Internet stocks hit a 10-day low, including Weibo (9898), which fell 5% to close at 100.7 yuan; (9618), which fell 4%, to close at 190.1 yuan.

Due to the continuous tightening of strict zero-clearing and lockdown policies in some cities, the RMB fell sharply against the US dollar. The onshore RMB fell below 7.23 yuan in early trading on Monday, and the pressure on the mainland real estate stocks across the board has once again proved its true strength. Agile (3383) fell 7% to close at 2.41 yuan; Longfor (960) also fell 5% to close at 20.75 yuan; Country Garden (2007) fell 5.8% to close at 2.92 yuan; Logan (3380) fell 6% to close at 0.88 yuan.

CIFI (884) creditors agreed to withdraw last Friday’s winding-up petition, which plunged nearly 10% to close at 1.23 yuan. Real estate property management stocks also fell. A-Living (3319) plunged 14% to close at 8.39 yuan; Country Garden Services (6098) fell 11% to close at 16.98 yuan, the worst performing blue chip stocks.

Six gaming companies in Macau successfully renewed their licenses. Ranked according to the bidding results, the first MGM China (2282) surged 13% to close at 4.76 yuan; the second Galaxy Entertainment (027) slightly rose 0.47% to close at 43.05 yuan; the third Sands China (1928) rose 8% to close at 18.8 yuan, making it the best-performing blue chip stock; Melco Crown Entertainment (MLCO.US) ranked fourth, and Wynn Macau (1128) surged 15% to close at 5.02 yuan ; Sixthly, SJM Holdings (880) rose 7% to close at 3.38 yuan. In addition, Melco International (200) rose more than 8%, to close at 5.43 yuan; Victory Dragon International (1182) rose 7.4%, to close at 0.29 yuan, at least the gambling speculation should come to an end.
Jin Riku

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