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the forecast of 40 experts

by archyde December 8, 2022

Despite the release of new “soybean dollar” that is helping the Central Bank to add reserves, December began with marked exchange rate volatility that is felt, above all, in los parallel dollars: the blue and the financiers.

In this context of new tensions in the market, uncertainty looms and many Argentines wonder what will happen in the coming months with the price of the dollar and inflation.

Within the framework of the unstable economic situation and a prolonged internship in the Frente de Todos that wore down the figure of President Alberto Fernández, so far this year the US currency remained consistently an important variable. As for the Dolar blue, is currently in a moment of calm. Last Friday, July 22, the informal bill marked a feverish peak of $350, to close that day at a value of $338. Since then, the blue has been on a seesaw that placed it this Wednesday, December 7, at a price of $316.

Meanwhile, the official dollar It is currently advancing in an accelerated micro devaluation with respect to previous months. The wholesaler finished this Friday’s wheel at $169.90.

Dollar 2022 and 2023: the new market forecast

An interesting and useful perspective on what is to come can be found in the REM survey of the Central Bankwhich concentrates new forecasts on what What will happen to the price of the US ticket? at the end of the year and in 2023. The monetary authority published this Friday the results of the monthly survey it carries out among consultants and analysts from the City. There, experts share their forecasts for the dollar priceinflation and GDP growth.

The financial market agents grouped in the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) estimated that the official wholesale exchange rate will reach the $172.42 per dollar at the end of December of 2022. This is a small increase from the previous REM forecast of $172.33. This indicates that the market believes that the reserves accumulated by the soybean dollar and the inflow of funds from international organizations will guarantee exchange peace, at least until the end of the year.

Evolution of REM forecasts. Price of the wholesale dollar projected for the end of December 2022.

In parallel, from the survey it appears that analysts foresee a price of the dollar of $320,39 for December 2023. This estimated price implies an increase of $0.89 compared to last month’s forecast.

As noted above, the wholesale dollar closed this Friday at $169.90, so analysts believe it has $2.52 still to climb until the end of this month.

Prices: what will happen to inflation

REM participants also anticipated that inflation of November 2022 amounted to 6,1%.

In addition, market analysts projected that retail inflation will accumulate during 2022 a 99%a slight drop compared to 100% that they had estimated last month. Likewise, the inflation forecast for the year 2023 It is 99,7%.

How much will the economy grow, according to the REM

REM analysts forecast by 2022 a growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) around the 5,3%which implies an improvement of 0.5 percentage points compared to last month’s survey.

The Survey of Market Expectations (REM) consists of a systematic monitoring of the main short and medium-term macroeconomic forecasts that are usually made by specialized local and foreign analysts, on the evolution of selected variables of the Argentine economy that are compiled by the Central Bank.

City experts forecast economic growth of 3% this year.

City experts forecast economic growth of 5.3% this year.

The expectations regarding retail prices, the interest rate, the nominal exchange rate, economic activity and the primary result of the non-financial national public sector are surveyed.

The latest report disseminates the results of the survey carried out between November 28 and 30.

The forecasts of 39 participants were considered, including 26 local and international consultants and research centers, and 13 financial entities from Argentina.

Price of the dollar in 2023: this anticipates FocusEconomics

In addition to the REM of the BCRA, another large survey highly regarded in the market is the one published monthly by FocusEconomics, the latest edition of which was released in mid-September.

In this case, some 40 national and foreign economists make their monthly forecasts about what will happen to the dollar in the coming months.

Regarding the projections for the wholesale dollar price for the end of next yearthe dispersion of values among the experts is very wide, since it depends on how the Government handles the shortage of foreign currency and the inflationary pressures in the devaluation of the official exchange rate.

According to the latest FocusEconomics world report, the exchange rate in Argentina will be $318 at the end of 2023.

According to the latest FocusEconomics world report, the consensus exchange rate for Argentina is $318 at the end of 2023.

“The peso must lose more ground in 2023 due to the continuous printing of money and high inflation,” say the economists at FocusEconomics.

In this way, the consensus of the analysts surveyed in November details that the exchange rate will reach $318 at the end of December next yeararound 7.4 pesos more than expected in the previous report (October).

If this price is reached, based on exchange rate estimates for the last day of 2022, the increase in the price of the wholesale dollar for all of 2023 would be 85%.

A percentage that is just below inflation projections (90.5%) for all of next year.

As data to take into account, in the current 2022, according to projections, the official devaluation would mark around 68%while the prices of the economy would be above 96%.

In turn, the price estimated by international analysts for the The official wholesale dollar for 14 months from now ($318) is well above the value indicated in the 2023 Budget presented to the National Congress by the Minister of Economy Sergio Massa, which stipulates an exchange rate of $270 for the end of the year. the next year.

According to the economists surveyed, by the end of 2023 the wholesale exchange rate could reach up to $471.

And in the futures and options market of the Matba-Rofex a wholesale dollar price is operating for the end of September 2023, which is the last established period in which these contracts can be carried out, so $327. In other words, 9 pesos more than the consensus of economists in the FocusEconomics survey for December of next year.

Economists projections for the dollar

The specific projections of national and foreign economists from banks and consultancies for the wholesale exchange rate by the end of 2023 show a great dispersion in prices ranging from $190 to $471. This is due to the marked uncertainty that is opening from the political and economic point of view for the coming months in Argentina.

The highest price expected by analysts for the official dollar in the wholesale market by the end of 2023, is led by the consultancy EcoGo, with a forecast of $471 pesos. It is followed by BancTrust & co ($431), and C&T Asesores and Empiria Consultores, both with an estimate of $417.

“We are anticipating that the rate of devaluation will continue to be high and this number of $471 is also including that by the end of December 2023 the new government will already have taken office. So, the possibility that there is a unification of the exchange rate and an additional devaluation back then. Beyond that, there is still a long way to go and it is not known if this will end up happening. Even for November of next year, before the elected administration arrives, we are seeing an exchange rate of $370″, he affirms to iProfessional Sebastian Menescaldi, economist and associate director of EcoGo.

In it agrees Maria Castiglione Cottereconomist and director of C&T Asesores, with projections of $417: “On December 10, 2023, the Government changes, and if the opposition wins what the polls indicate, there will be some exchange rate unification, even if it is not total, to remove the stocks and make prices honest. So, between November and December of next year there will be a jump in the exchange rate, beyond what today is making gigantic futurology, as happened at the end of 2015, but at that time the gap was 25% and now it is 100%. “.

And he adds to iProfessional: “Beyond that, the exchange rate will move at the current rate, because there is no room for maneuver because there are no reserves in the Central Bank”.

For his part, Isaiah Marini, Econviews economist, who forecasts $378 by the end of 2023, adds: “The exchange rate that we project is consistent with a maintenance of the real exchange rate at year-end levels, that is, it implies a significant delay. But the government will have no choice but to speed up the devaluation.”

In your opinion, “There is no more room for delay, since even with a mega stocks and without energy imports the Central Bank loses millions of dollars per day. And the drought can really complicate the situation. So, if the soybean harvest projections, which remain optimistic, are not met, the government will have an ‘ugly’ time in an electoral context.”

December 8, 2022 0 comment

Health

You will not believe what will happen to your body when you eat the “tangerine” fruit daily! • Observatory Newspaper

by archyde December 8, 2022

Al-Marsad Newspaper: Mandarin fruits contain vitamins C, A and B, and many minerals such as: iron, magnesium, potassium, phosphorus and calcium, according to the health webmd website.

Tangerines also contain vitamins that are beneficial for eye health, such as vitamin C, which reduces the chances of macular degeneration, which results in vision loss.

Eating tangerines is associated with healthy skin, and vitamin C has been shown to play a vital role in the body’s production of collagen, which makes our skin more youthful, and treats damage caused by sun exposure.

Tangerine is rich in natural fibers and natural antioxidants, both of which help reduce the incidence of heart and arterial diseases. Tangerine also contributes to weight loss, thanks to its high content of dietary fiber and water that helps to feel full and full of the stomach.

Tangerine contains a large amount of antioxidants that enhance the speed of the body’s disposal of fats, thus reducing high cholesterol, in addition to containing a high percentage of pectin, which helps increase good bacteria in the intestines to improve the digestion of food.

Tangerine reduces cancer, because it contains limonene, a substance that has anti-cancer properties, and tangerine boosts the immune system, because it contains antioxidants.

Tangerine contributes to treating damaged hair and protecting it from dandruff, as it contains a high percentage of vitamin A.

December 8, 2022 0 comment

Health

What happens to your body if you eat chocolate daily? • Observatory Newspaper

by archyde December 7, 2022

Al-Marsad Newspaper: A lot of research has been done on milk chocolate and dark chocolate because they contain substances from the cocoa plant, whose elements are associated with many health benefits.

According to EatingWell, white chocolate actually contains only cocoa butter, while research results indicate various health effects of eating chocolate regularly, as follows:

1. Improve heart health

2. Boost iron levels

3. The discipline of cognitive functions

December 7, 2022 0 comment

News

How about each of the stars this week? Kanipayyur – Weekly Star Prediction | Astrology | Astrology

by archyde December 6, 2022

Ashwati – Will attain self-sufficiency depending on circumstances. There will be discomfort due to irregularities in the diet. The works done will be useful to others.

Bharani – There will be self-fulfillment through the realization of dreams. Anger should be controlled. Duties will increase officially. It will withdraw from the joint venture and start its own fields of activity.

Karthika – Parents’ wishes will come true. Inadequacies in governance will be resolved. Conditions will be met.

Rohini – There will be a happy atmosphere in the family. There will be promotion in the job. There will be self-fulfillment through the realization of dreams.

Maize – Activities will be encouraged. There will be progress in trade and marketing sectors. Will win in arts and sports competitions.

Thiruvathira – Financial gains will decrease in the employment sector. What you do will benefit others. Rigidity should be avoided.

Punartham – Do not make any transaction without documents. There will be help and cooperation from colleagues. Consensus requires relentless effort.

Puyam – Will win arts and sports competitions. There will be stress in work areas and travel difficulties. It is possible to survive the accusations.

Ayylam – There will be an opportunity to apply the knowledge learned. Actions done will be useful to others. Duties will increase at work.

Makam – Can survive external stimuli. Overconfidence should be abandoned.

Pooram – Stay away from arguments. Higher education will get a suitable job. Probability of success will be evaluated and new projects will be designed.

Uttaram – public works will get popular support. Stress will increase in the work sector. A long-cherished foreign trip will come true. Make the most of opportunities.

Atham – Expert advice will be sought to expand the area of operation. One feels self-respect in following the rituals.

Chitira – will win in arts and sports competitions. Will shine in public activities. Conditions will be met. The project will achieve its goals in submission.

Question – New business will be started with the help of a friend. Ideas and wishes will come true. Activities done with devotion will achieve the goal.

Visakham – Professional travel and efforts will result in less results. Be very careful with money transactions. Willing to help colleagues.

Anishadow – There is a possibility of a fall due to carelessness. Income and expenditure will be equal. Official travel will be required. Self-fulfillment will be achieved through unremitting efforts.

Thriketta – Efforts will be fulfilled. Foreign travel will be successful. Will be ready to copy the ideas of great people in life.

Due to – will be ready to compromise to protect self-esteem. Income and expenditure will be equal. Make the most of opportunities.

Puradam – Deviation will come to fixed things. New responsibilities will be taken up with optimism. A mature approach will overcome adversity.

Utratam – Self-fulfilment will be achieved through the fulfillment of desire. Word and deed will be effective. Travel difficulties will increase. Will win in arts and sports competitions. There will be positive success in planned projects.

Thiruvonam – Income and expenditure will be equal. Favorable opportunities will come for students. A pious family atmosphere will be created.

Avitham – the field of work will improve. An atmosphere of peace will be created in the family. Good things get popular support. Conditions will be met.

Cheating – health will be satisfactory. One will witness new discoveries in information technology. A new administration will take over with complete independence.

Pururuttati – will bring many things to the operational level. Will achieve goal in punctuality. Will be ready to follow the fasts.

Uthritathi – Optimism will increase. Personal freedom will pave the way for wish fulfillment. Will succeed in scientific experiments observations.

Revathi – Informative discussions will be successful. Word and deed will be effective. Will be ready to obey the truth. A new system of administration will be adopted.

Content Summary : Weekly Star Prediction by Kanippayyur / 2022 December 04 to 10

December 6, 2022 0 comment

Economy

The dollar was relegated in 2022 but be careful: it is going for revenge

by archyde December 5, 2022

In the last 12 months the dollar was not the best investmentthe fixed term calesita was the star, the dollar wholesaler still late, the Sovereign bonds a good investment alternative.

Inflation for the month of November would be at 6.0% per month, this would imply a inflation rate in the last 12 months of 94.4%.

In the month of November, the wholesale dollar rose 6.6%, and in the last 12 months it increased 65.7%.

So far we have inflation in dollars of 28.7% per year, this exchange rate delay at some point this government or the next one will have to adjust it.

On the interest rate side, the 30-day fixed term gives you a rate of 6.25%, and if you add the accumulated returns of the last 12 months you obtained a rate of 72.4% per year (we calculated a fixed term to 30 days taking the rates offered in the last 12 months)

The MEP dollar in the last 12 months rose 54.8%.

Inflation for the month of November would be 6.0% per month, which would imply an annual inflation rate of 94.4%

The ranking of investments: where was the dollar

The ranking would be first inflation or financial instruments tied to the evolution of inflation with a rise of 94.4%. In second place, the traditional fixed term with a rise of 72.4%. Third, the wholesale dollar or the instruments that adjust per linked dollar which rose 65.7%, In fourth place, the MEP dollar which rose 54.8%.

In recent days we have seen an improvement in sovereign bond prices in dollarsFor example, the AE38 bond was worth US$33.50 a year ago, and today it is worth US$30.20, however, he has paid rents worth US$2 during that period, with which the person who bought this bond lost 3.8%.

For the next 3 years, this bond pays rent in the months of January and July, in the year 2023 it pays US$1.9375 each month, in the year 2024 in each payment US$2,125 and in the year 2025 pays US$2.50 each month.

This implies that if you buy this bond today for US$30.20, in the next 3 years you will take US$13,125 in income, which implies that you will recover 43.5% of the money invested.

There are certain possibilities that this bond can be honored by Argentinabut if we were making a mistake and Argentina rescheduled the debt in the second half of 2024, we would invest US$30.20 and recover US$8,125, so this bond would cost us US$22,075, which is a very low value and easy to recover even though we have a debt restructuring ahead of us.

If the next government restructures the debt, offers a 20% capital reduction and leaves the income coupons unchanged, this bond would remain at parity of 27.6% and therefore would quickly recover to parity levels of 40.0 % that would leave us with a significant profit, since it left us at a cost of US$22,075, and if it later earns a parity of 40% on a face value of US$80 (by removing 20%), in terms reais would be worth US$32.00, which would leave me a profit of 45.0% in just over two years.

There are investments that paid off such as the calesita fixed term, you have to wait for the dollar

What should invest in

Argentine sovereign bonds in their different variants are an excellent purchase opportunity, they are at very low prices, and they would support up to a debt restructuring with a 20% capital removal, if in 2023 a government wins that imposes more economic rationalityinvestments in energy and mining mature, we have two years without drought and good harvests.

In the last 12 months, inflation-adjusted peso bonds and inflation-adjusted fixed terms were the big financial winners. The remembered fixed term calesita (whose author writes this note) is giving big differences. We remind you that the calesita fixed term was to make a fixed term adjusted for inflation at 90 days, 120 days and 150 days, to then renew it in all cases to 90 days, constituting a monthly flow of fixed terms adjusted for inflation with a premium of 3 months of accrued inflation.

Example: I have $300,000 and I make 3 fixed terms adjusted for inflation (UVA), $100,000 at 90 days, $100,000 at 120 days and $100,000 at 150 days, once they expire I renew them at 90 days, the first one is due at 180 days, the second at 210 days and the third at 240 days, and so I renew them successively, putting together a perfect monthly flow of quarterly returns that will give me inflation for 3 consecutive months as income.

The traditional fixed term, in the last 12 months could not beat inflation, but it made a difference to the wholesale dollars and bills, since in the last 12 months the fixed term yielded 72.4%, while the wholesale dollar 65.7% and the MEP dollar 54.8%.

The Government, until September, deliberately delayed the wholesale exchange rate, but from October onwards it began to index the economy, since the exchange rate, inflation and the interest rate grow at the same rate (between 6 .25% and 6.6% every month). This is very dangerous, since at some point these variables could spiral upwards, either due to prices that increase for seasonal reasons (for example meat) or a rise in imported products (given import restrictions). This would affect economic expectations, and this would be reflected in a widening of the gap, which would push the MEP dollar higher.

The crazy mania of issuing that this government has, issuing to finance the Treasury, to pay interest on the Central Bank’s debt or to buy bonds in pesos makes the danger of higher inflation or an increase in the gap latent. To this we add the dangerous move of implementing special dollars such as the soybean dollar, for which the Central Bank pays $230, and then uses them to deliver importers at $170, clearly a loss that is difficult to recover.

The traditional fixed term, in the last 12 months could not beat inflation, but it made a difference to dollars

What’s going to happen with the dollar

So far the dollar looks like the big loser, but relevant events such as the issuance, the lack of interest from the private sector in the treasury tenders and the failures of the special dollars, could revive the exchange rate from the ashes. Keep an eye on sovereign bondsbecause they pay rent in dollars bills, and their price is very low.

As for stocks, watch out for bank stocks, which rise little because banks are stuffed with treasury debt. I love YPF’s action, but if they are prohibited from increasing fuel by more than 4.0% per month, when they devalue at a rate of 6.6% per month, it does not seem appropriate to put money in a company with said equation, we will have to look with more attention to exporting companies linked to raw materials, with less state intervention in their businesses, difficult but not impossible.

There are investments that have paid off, such as the merry-go-round, you have to wait for the dollar, whoever waits often despairs, but everything will have its reward, and it will come very soon.

December 5, 2022 0 comment

world

palace intrigues and the history of a country, behind the scenes of a stadium bewitched by Messi

by archyde December 4, 2022

Argentina left Australia on the way to Ahmad Bin Ali, who was Qatar’s strongman at the time of independence. The story of him.

Ahmad Bin Ali. This is the name of the stadium that served as the setting for the match that Argentina beat Australia, with an outstanding Messi, for the round of 16 of the World Cup. This pitch, one of the ones I had yet to visit in Qatar 2022, is about 20 kilometers west of downtown Doha and was and will be the home of Al Rayyan FC, one of the most popular football clubs in this small country and which for a while he enjoyed (and got tired of) James Rodriguezthe fantastic Colombian who appeared in world football from Banfield.

This is one of the stages that was completely recycled for this exotic sporting event, although the organizers detailed that 80 percent of the materials from the previous stadium structure were actually used. It can be reached via the Green Line of the Metro and is at the gates of the desert, to which it pays homage with its peculiar design.

So far the definition that could appear in any brochure. But now comes the story behind the story.

Why does it have that name? Ahmad Bin Ali Al Thani was the emir who ruled the destinies of Qatar at a historic moment. During his tenure, between 1960 and 1972, he began to explore and exploit an innumerable number of oil wells that allowed the country to change its economic and financial status. And, years later, in September, he was the one who signed the letter of independence from the United Kingdom. A hero. But…

Ahmad Bin Ali was little able to enjoy the sovereignty of Qatar because six months later he was overthrown in a surprising although bloody coup d’état whose mastermind was his cousin, Khalifa Bin Hamad Al Thani.

Khalifa Bin Hamadwhich also has its own stadium in Qatar – it is the home of Al Ahli, in the Nuaija neighborhood, although it did not reach the rank of World Cup player – took advantage of the fact that Ahman Bin Ali was on a hunting trip through Iran and stayed in power in the form definitive.

Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani, the father of the current emir and the son of the one who overthrew Ahmad Bin Ali. Photo: AP

First he had been finance minister and then he was the prime minister. It is claimed that in reality he was the strong man, the brains, of the government and that Ahmad Bin Ali was something like a testimonial emir who enjoyed the pleasures of mixing with the jet set more than making strong decisions.

That’s what they say, of course. But, it is known, history is written by those who win. For this reason, the coup d’état was taken by the world as a done and (not) right coup d’état, but here, according to the books, it was considered as another succession in this centenary dynasty of the Al Thani, which is a of the three families that have managed this territory since it was a simple and modest village.

Ahmad Bin AliAfter the betrayal, he decided to go into self-exile in Dubai along with one of his wives, who was the daughter of a powerful man from that emirate. He died at the age of 55 in London. Khalifa Bin HamadFor his part, he was the one who laid the foundations of this modern Qatar that these days is the world capital of soccer. His idea was his, among many others, of opening the borders to obtain skilled and unskilled labor to populate and empower the country.

Khalifa Bin Hamad He died a little while ago, in 2016, at the age of 84. But his reign ended in 1995 the same way he began. Yes, the turns of life made him leave as he arrived. By force.

Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani greets Gianni Infantino. Photo: AFP

It is that his son, Hamad bin Khalifa -yes, the order alters the name of the emir-, began to gain a leading role in the government and also at a geostrategic level in the turbulent decade of the 1990s, at the time of the Gulf War. And in that 1995 he took advantage of the fact that his father was in Switzerland to proclaim himself emir. As had happened just over two decades before, no one was frightened by the violent exchange. Khalifa Bin Hamad took refuge in France for a while and in 2004 he returned to his country, no longer holding grudges.

Hamad Bin Khalifa was a decisive player in the region. He allowed two US military bases to be established, but at the same time maintained a good dialogue with Iran and played an important role during the Arab Spring by financing rebel movements in Libya and Syria. He was also the mastermind behind Al Jazeera, one of the world’s largest media groups. However, in 2013, at the age of 61, he broke with the history of coups by abdicating and handing over power to Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thanihis fourth son.

Tamim Bin Hamad is emir of the World Cup. At the opening party, the Al Bayt Stadium roared every time he appeared on the big screens and was fired up by his speech. Neither the thousand-year-old Messi nor Neymar nor Cristiano Ronaldo have achieved so much so far in this World Cup in the Middle East. In the not too distant future his name will also be a stadium.

Doha, Qatar. Special delivery.

look also

December 4, 2022 0 comment

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