South Africa is pushing forward with a troubled 60,000 barrels-per-day oil refinery project in Pagak, northeastern South Sudan, despite severe logistical hurdles, seasonal flooding, and unexploded ordnance. Conceived more than seven years ago under the then energy minister Jeff Radebe, the venture places 90% of the B2 Block under the Strategic Fuel Fund.
Here is why that matters right now: As energy demands shift and regional supply routes remain volatile, Pretoria is doubling down on an asset located deep within an unforgiving terrain of heavy clay soils, swampy floodpains, and the Sudd wetlands. The Sunday Times reported at the time that Radebe had rushed in when concluding the deal, which energy experts and opposition leaders revealed was pushed through despite Radebe being advised against it by the Central Energy Fund.
Despite those early warnings and a three-year COVID-19 hiatus recognized as force majeure by South Sudan, the South African National Petroleum Company (SANPC) has gone to market. The entity recently sought bids to conduct an integrated terrain reconnaissance, aiming to derisk a 2D seismic survey across the Jonglei Sub-Basin, Block B2.
SANPC spokesperson Jacky Mashapu defended the ongoing outlay to the Business Times, noting that nearly $20m has already been spent from the Strategic Fuel Fund’s approved budget. The project is in the exploration phase, and after successful exploration activities culminating in the drilling of wells, it will go into appraisal phase,
Mashapu said, adding that the block holds high potential subject to inherent exploration risks.
Logistical Nightmares and Environmental Realities in Jonglei
Acquiring seismic data in the Jonglei Sub-Basin is no simple task. Tender documents published by the SANPC outline a punishing array of physical obstacles that threaten to delay exploration and inflate operational costs.
Teams must contend with poor or non-existent infrastructure, severe seasonal flooding, and surface noise across remote access points. But there is a catch: heavy clay soils lose their bearing capacity during the rainy season, complicating heavy transport and drilling mobilization.
Furthermore, workers face the constant threat of unexploded ordnance alongside security risks in a region dependent on strong community engagement and lasting political stability. The following breakdown illustrates the core physical and environmental hurdles outlined in the tender documents:
| Challenge Category | Specific Obstacle | Operational Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Terrain & Hydrology | Extensive seasonal flooding & Sudd wetlands | Severely restricts ground access and seismic data acquisition. |
| Soil Mechanics | Heavy clay soils with low bearing capacity | Prevents movement of heavy machinery during rainy periods. |
| Security & Safety | Unexploded ordnance and localized conflict | Presents direct safety risks to personnel and contractors. |
Geopolitical Crosswinds and Regional Stability
South Sudan holds approximately 3.5-billion barrels of proven oil reserves, with nearly 90% remaining untapped. With oil revenues funding over 80%-90% of the national budget, the country’s economy remains heavily dependent on hydrocarbon performance.
But the landlocked nation must route almost all of its crude through pipelines and ports in neighboring Sudan to reach international markets. Active fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has repeatedly ruptured these pipelines and damaged pump stations, choking off production.
To help stabilize the region, South Africa maintains deep diplomatic and technical ties rooted in historical alliances between the African National Congress and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement. Earlier this week, President Cyril Ramaphosa met with South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir Mayardit in Pretoria.
During those discussions, the Presidency noted that Ramaphosa emphasized full adherence to the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan. Whether this diplomatic engagement can secure the operational environment required for SANPC to drill its exploratory wells remains the defining question for Pretoria’s long-term energy gamble.
