Urged to strengthen the central bank reserves between a context of exchange rate tensionthe Government will try to get the cereal exporters to speed up the foreign exchange settlements In the next weeks. Due to exchange rate uncertainty, these sales have slowed down, in a scenario in which soybean producers are also much more conservative.
According to the official estimate, the soybeans they keep in the silobags around $10 billion. Of that total, half -about US$5,000 million- should already have been sold if it weren’t for the big stage exchange rate uncertainty. The farmers retain the merchandise, due to the doubt of an imminent devaluation.
For this reason, and as Martín Guzmán did before, a negotiation channel was opened to try to get producers and cereal companies to speed up liquidations. The idea is to assign a Time’s window in which those who sell soybeans have a tax benefit.
The problem that exists now is that the scenario looks so complicated, with a gap of more than 130% -at the beginning of the week, the cash with liquidation rose to $304-, that the owners of soybeans will want to set very strong conditions for access to release a large part of its production.
A report from the Ieral realized the slowdown in settlements of soybean production: “From almost 800,000 weekly tons of soybeans sold in May, it went to 540,000 in the last five weeks (four weeks in June and one in July), that is, the volumes sold were reduced by 32%. Note that at the end In June, only 27% of the soybean harvest was marketed, when the historical pattern places this percentage at 45% for that same date”.
The government is targeting soybean dollars.
More uncertainty, fewer dollars
The latest numbers give an account of what is happening: last Friday, the cereal companies liquidated at the Central Bank, just under US$72 million. Until a few weeks ago, the average daily rate was about $200 million.
The sudden decrease at the settlement level, it is linked to the currency gap spike in the last 40 days. First with the run against debt securities in pesos and then after Guzmán’s resignation.
The contraction in the supply of foreign exchange is combined with another issue, just as serious or more serious: the heavy energy payments that the Government must make daily to ensure the supply of gas and fuels in the middle of winter.
The Energy It is taking imports for US$2,000 million per month. Just yesterday, at the beginning of the week, the Central Bank transferred some US$200 million.
The high gap of the dollar generates expectations of devaluation and stops the liquidations of the field.
Dollar: the plan to “overwinter”
According to Miguel Pesce, head of the BCRA, energy payments will calm down as the weeks go by. From the current peak it would go to a lower volume within a month. For September and October, energy payments should be closer to u$s1,000 million monthly.
“It will all depend on the temperatures in the second fortnight of August and September,” refers a source in the economic team to iProfessional.
To have a safe passage between now and then, The Government will try to increase the flow of greenbacks that reach the Central Bank. For this reason, it is anticipated urgent negotiation with the cereal companies.
It is clear that there is no room left for what Guzmán did before being ejected from the Government: the former minister blocked all imports from the country, which allowed the Central Bank to hoard US$1.5 billion in four days.
This extreme measure has costs that are still being paid: without the entry of imports, businessmen have become more jealous of their stocks, which they care for as much as dollars. The cost of uncertainty, while intangible, is also is paid with more inflation.
This is what is noticeable in some items, especially. Appliances and also some supplies for construction registered increases of more than 50% in the last two weeks due to exchange rate uncertainty and lack of merchandise.
The BCRA’s reserves, battered by energy costs, need the help of agricultural settlements.
Uncertainty is closely lived in companies
Some companies untimely decided to suspension of sales to his clients. It happened among those that basically sell imported products.
There were others who directly applied price increaseswhich in some cases can be described as “violent“, in relation to the dynamics they had been showing.
Outside of food, some items dependent on imports are also showing notable increases.
Signals to the private sector: are they enough?
Since the assumption of Silvina Batakis, the Government gambled that the minister’s announcements of the week would be enough to stabilize the exchange front. One week after, no variables improved. Rather the complete opposite.
The inflationary surge of recent weeks adds pressure to the Government.
The foreign exchange market is more stressed and the front of the real economy also appears more problematic, with a notorious overheating of prices.
Until now, Alberto Fernandez He gave up the announcement of a comprehensive plan, in which the Government’s roadmap is stated until the end of the mandate.
It is clear that the mere mention of the intentions -fiscal fuss and commitment to the goals of the agreement signed with the IMF- are not enough to stabilize the exchange rate and financial variables.
The pressures continue to mount, and that is evident in the price jump. Inflation could approach 8% this month, according to forecasts by the Orlando Ferreres consulting firm, one of the benchmarks for the market.
The next few days will be key, in case the Government fails to speed up foreign exchange settlements.