[１３日 ロイター] – The US Labor Department’s November Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fueled speculation in money markets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will further slow down its pace of rate hikes as early as next year.
The Fed is expected to decide on a 0.50 percentage point rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting, but Federal Funds (FF) rate futures are currently set for a rate hike to be decided at next February’s FOMC meeting. The level incorporates a 50% chance of a 0.25 percentage point spread and a view that the terminal rate of interest rates will not exceed 4.5% to 4.75%.
Before the release of the CPI data, the expected rate hike in February next year was 0.50 percentage points.
The seasonally adjusted CPI slowed to 7.1% in November from 7.7% in October, the lowest since December 2021. The most recent year-on-year peak was 9.1% in June, the biggest increase since November 1981.