As the November 2026 midterms approach, rising diesel and fertilizer costs combined with shifting tariff policies are testing the traditional loyalty of American farmers toward President Donald Trump. While Trump secured 69% of the rural vote in 2024, recent polls show mounting economic dissatisfaction across key agricultural states.
The Bottom Line
Economic Pressures Mount: Farmers are grappling with soaring costs for diesel and fertilizer.
Political Vulnerability: Recent polling indicates a notable drop in rural approval ratings for Trump’s economic handling, potentially impacting upcoming midterm races.
Policy Clash: Administration attempts to curb grocery prices through temporary beef import tariff suspensions have faced swift backlash from agricultural groups and livestock producers who argue the scheme hurts local ranchers.
Rising Production Costs and Global Energy Pressures
Agricultural operations across the United States are facing severe cost constraints. Steve Sheffels, a wheat farmer and president of the Montana Grain Growers Association, notes that around 40% of his expenses go towards buying fertilizer.
At the same time, fuel expenses have spiked. The national average for diesel hit a record high of over $6.52 per gallon on Sept. 22, 2026, according to the American Automobile Association. Oklahoma farmer Brent Rendel explains that heavy farm machinery relies on diesel, making it an inflexible expense.
| Agricultural Input | Recent Price Metrics | Reported Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Ground Beef (per lb) | Rose from $5.58 (Aug 2024) to $6.92 (Aug 2026) | Triggered tariff suspension on 300,000 metric tons of imported beef |
| Diesel Fuel (national average) | Over $6.52 per gallon on Sept. 22, 2026 | Prompted executive order allowing temporary use of red-dyed off-road diesel |
| Fertilizer | Urea price up 7.9% | Strains producers relying on fertilizer |
Beef Imports and Supply Chain Strain
To address soaring consumer grocery prices—with ground beef climbing to an average of $6.92 per pound by August 2026—the White House implemented a 90-day suspension of tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of imported foreign beef starting September 1. However, the American Farm Bureau Federation reported that prices at 30 out of 41 tracked grocery stores remained relatively unchanged weeks after the proclamation.
Sid Miller, an eighth-generation farmer and rancher, states that ranchers are feeling the negative fallout of the import scheme. Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, adds that cattle producers feel the administration is willing to sacrifice their interests to secure lower short-term beef prices ahead of the midterms.
Shifting Voter Sentiment Ahead of the Midterms
Polling data reflects the growing disconnect between rural communities and federal economic strategies. An August AP-KFF poll found that 57% of rural voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, with approximately 27% of rural Republicans expressing disapproval and signaling lower certainty about voting in November. Concurrently, a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in June placed Trump’s approval rating among rural Americans at 50%, with only 31% approving of his handling of economic issues.
Trade conflicts have compounded these domestic pressures. Tariffs on key production inputs have imposed roughly $2.6 billion in additional costs on crop farmers from February 2025 through July 2026, according to data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. Meanwhile, Chinese tariffs continue to impact key agricultural exports like soybeans.
With policy shifts causing widespread uncertainty, agricultural leaders note that long-term investment planning has become increasingly difficult as the midterm elections draw closer.
