Flavio Bolsonaro, a conservative Brazilian senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, secured 47% of the vote in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, positioning himself ahead of incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The 45-year-old senator created a surprise by finishing ahead of Lula da Silva, who took 45% of the vote in the first round, while polls had previously given a slight advantage to the incumbent president.
Following this strong first-round showing, Flavio Bolsonaro received support from Donald Trump, who hailed the result as a great victory. The second round of the presidential election is scheduled for October 25.
Flavio Bolsonaro Victory Boosts Sao Paulo Markets
Flavio Bolsonaro garnered 56 million votes, surpassing the figures achieved by his father, Jair Bolsonaro, in past elections. The electoral outcome triggered a strong reaction in the financial markets, with the Bourse de Sao Paulo rising by more than 9% at midday and the Ibovespa indicator reaching a record high above 200,000 points. Analysts noted that the market views the conservative candidate as more aligned with Brazil’s economic and budgetary needs, following promises of fiscal rigor, tax cuts, and a reduced state role.
In addition to the presidential race, the conservative camp made significant gains in the federal legislature. Analyst Thomas Traumann described the outcome as a tsunami of anti-PT sentiment, referring to Lula’s Workers’ Party.
Background and Context of the Bolsonaro Family
Flavio Bolsonaro describes himself as more moderate than his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year home sentence following a conviction for a 2022 coup attempt against Lula. Commentators noted that a victory for the younger Bolsonaro could also serve efforts directed toward his father’s legal situation, with references to previous lobbying efforts aimed at the Trump administration.
Lula Must Mobilize Abstained Voters to Win
Political scientists emphasize that the outcome remains contested, with Lula needing to mobilize approximately 21% of voters who abstained in the first round in order to turn the race around.
