Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff stands at the tail end of the vulnerability rankings as the Senate battleground enters its final week before Election Day, a sharp reversal from a year and a half ago when CQ Roll Call first published the list and ranked him the most vulnerable incumbent.
According to Gonzales, Ossoff’s reelection contest is classified as Lean Democratic, while major external political committees representing both parties have withdrawn their television advertising budgets from the state over the past several weeks. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the majority in the Senate, a chamber-control prospect that looked highly unlikely for much of the cycle.
The Top Tier of Vulnerable Incumbents
The four most endangered incumbent senators—Jon Husted of Ohio, Susan Collins of Maine, Dan Sullivan of Alaska, and Roger Marshall of Kansas—stayed in the exact same positions as last month’s evaluation. While Husted, Collins, and Sullivan have faced competitive contests all year, Democrats view deep-red Kansas as a pickup opportunity, prompting Inside Elections to shift that race rating in the challenger’s direction earlier this month.
The contest for Ohio’s Senate seat has turned into an expensive financial battle between Husted—who took office via appointment to complete the remainder of Vice President JD Vance’s term—and Democrat Sherrod Brown, whose career included three Senate terms prior to his 2024 defeat by Republican Bernie Moreno. Brown raised $68.4 million through mid-October, outpacing Husted’s $19.9 million. Crypto-related super PACs opposed to Brown rank among the top outside spenders.
In Maine, Collins faces a tight race against former state Senate President Troy Jackson as she seeks a record sixth term. The candidates recently met for heated debates where Collins emphasized her independence and record of securing federal funding, while Jackson sought to tie her to President Donald Trump and highlight Maine’s influence on Senate control. In a final ad released Tuesday, Jackson said he owes “nothing to the billionaires or Trump,” counterbalanced by a late-week spot from Collins and the National Republican Senatorial Committee highlighting Jackson’s debate remark, “Oh, shut up.”
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Challengers, Ranked-Choice Voting, and Legal Battles in Alaska
Alaska’s Dan Sullivan contends with the standard headwinds facing GOP candidates alongside a high-profile Democratic challenger, a rival sharing his surname, and the state’s ranked-choice voting system. Four candidates appear on the November ballot: Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan, Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola, unaffiliated retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and perennial GOP hopeful Gerald Heikes. Last week, the Justice Department filed an unusual lawsuit arguing that the presence of the “other” Dan Sullivan on the ballot justifies a delay in certifying the race should the incumbent lose.
Meanwhile, Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932, but Marshall faces intense pressure from Democrat Adam Hamilton. Escalating costs for diesel fuel and fertilizer, driven by the war in Iran and federal tariffs, weigh heavily on the agricultural state. Investigations by The New York Times revealed that medical businesses operated by Marshall, who works as a physician, filed lawsuits against numerous patients seeking unpaid medical debts, which drew additional public attention. Marshall’s campaign has framed Hamilton, a pastor, as too liberal, despite the Democrat securing endorsements from former Republican Govs. Mike Hayden and Bill Graves.
Shifting Margins in Mississippi and South Carolina
Darline Graham of South Carolina, who assumed office during the summer to fill the vacancy left by the death of her brother Lindsey Graham, finds herself fighting an unexpectedly competitive race against Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews. Despite Trump’s endorsement in the deep-red state, unfavorable political conditions for Republicans and Graham’s limited name recognition have landed her on the vulnerability list. Republican Rep. Ralph Norman, who lost a bitter primary runoff to Graham, stated on Fox News that Trump was trying to “force a candidate” on South Carolina voters.
Mississippi’s Cindy Hyde-Smith makes a late-cycle debut on the list amid a competitive challenge from local district attorney Scott Colom. Limited polling shows the incumbent ahead, though top Senate super PACs from both parties have launched ad campaigns and both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris visited the state in the past week. A Democratic upset requires high turnout among Black voters energized by a Supreme Court ruling that weakened the Voting Rights Act, alongside support from a segment of Republican voters.
Nebraska’s Economic Populism and Georgia’s Dec. 1 Runoff Potential
Nebraska’s Pete Ricketts falls to No. 7 as he appears positioned to defeat independent Dan Osborn. Osborn, a former union leader, has leaned into economic populism and characterized Ricketts as an out-of-touch nepo baby, though the independent candidate apologized after Republicans circulated leaked audio of him disparaging rural Trump voters. Ricketts receives outside backing from the crypto-related Defend American Jobs super PAC.
In Georgia, Ossoff raised an eye-popping $136.6 million through Oct. 14, dwarfing Republican challenger Rep. Mike Collins, who brought in $10.7 million. Collins has faced a House Ethics inquiry and reports concerning antisemitic and white nationalist social media posts shared by his son-in-law. Republicans maintain a final hope that Ossoff falls short of 50 percent, which would force a Dec. 1 runoff capable of drawing massive spending should control of the Senate remain undecided.
