Saudi Arabia Plans 100,000-Troop Yemen Offensive to Secure the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Saudi Arabia is preparing a major military offensive against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, with operations expected to launch in the coming weeks, according to regional and Western officials. The campaign aims to reverse recent Houthi gains along the Red Sea coast, break a critical shipping chokehold, and restore normal maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, Reuters reported.
Mobilizing 100,000 Troops Across Multiple Fronts
The planned offensive involves two primary options under consideration by Riyadh: a narrowly focused coastal push to retake the area immediately surrounding the Bab el-Mandeb strait, or a broader, synchronized multi-front assault across the Yemeni governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz, and Al-Jawf. Depending on the final scale of the operation, more than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized. These ground forces will be overseen by Riyadh and supported directly by Saudi airstrikes. Six individuals with direct knowledge of the preparations provided these operational details, noting that the timing ranges from within a week to the period following the United States midterm elections in early November.
The military preparations mark a sharp pivot for Saudi Arabia, which entered the neighboring civil war in 2015 leading an Arab coalition to support the internationally recognized government after Houthi forces seized the capital, Sanaa. According to Western diplomats and a Gulf official cited by Reuters, Riyadh concluded that new peace negotiations cannot proceed while the militants retain leverage over the vital southern exit passage of the Red Sea.
Red Sea Shipping Pressures and Regional Defense Alignments
Newsquawk reported that freight and insurance markets have historically reacted immediately to such disruptions through rising war-risk premiums and longer transit routes, even before physical supply losses materialize. Analysts note that while a successful Saudi campaign could shorten shipping disruptions, escalation phases often prompt wider Houthi targeting.
To safeguard its territory, Saudi Arabia has sought defensive backing from international partners. Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to the kingdom to protect borders and assist with missile and interceptions, according to a Pakistani official cited by Ynetnews. Furthermore, Islamabad sent four cargo planes to Aden last month carrying air defense systems, light artillery, and anti-drone technology, alongside military advisers stationed on the ground to support Saudi counterparts. France has similarly announced plans to deploy defensive systems and troops to the Saudi Red Sea port city of Yanbu, while Turkey has provided military equipment, including drones, utilized in the kingdom’s operations.
Washington’s Limited Support and the Risk of Escalation
Washington remains aligned with Riyadh by supplying military advisers and intelligence, including targeting data to support Saudi air operations in Yemen. However, direct U.S. combat involvement is not expected.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney characterized the prospective campaign as far more modest than the 2015 intervention. As Ratney noted to Reuters, the primary goal is returning to the status quo ante before the Houthis seized coastal territory along the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The Houthis have emerged as Iran’s most formidable regional ally following the degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon over the past three years. This planned offensive represents a volatile new flashpoint as the Middle East continues to absorb the wider conflicts sparked by the October 7, 2023 attacks and subsequent military engagements involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.
