Middle Eastern oil flows have recovered to approximately 80 percent of pre-conflict volumes following the outbreak of the Israeli-American war against Iran, according to data from Shell and Kpler. Despite continued Iranian military actions in the Strait of Hormuz, alternative shipping routes, naval escorts, and shuttle tankers have largely bypassed maritime disruptions.
Naval Escorts Help Petroleum Flow Recover
Data released by Kpler placed September’s petroleum flow rates at 92 percent of pre-war volumes, while Shell Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan estimated the recovery at roughly 80 percent compared to levels recorded before the outbreak of the conflict on February 28. These metrics indicate that Iran has lost its capacity to effectively choke traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts attribute the traffic normalization to three distinct logistical adaptations. The United States military has maintained a heavy regional presence, offering direct naval escorts to commercial shipping vessels. Meanwhile, operators utilize shuttle tankers to sail the strait before transloading crude cargoes onto larger carriers within the Gulf of Oman.
Exporters have also diverted supplies away from the chokepoint entirely. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which terminates at the Red Sea, has absorbed significant volumes of regional crude.
East-West Pipeline Operates Below Peak Capacity
Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman reported that the East-West pipeline currently transports 5.8 million barrels per day. The infrastructure operates just below its peak design capacity of 7 million barrels per day, despite sustaining targeted damage from Houthi strikes on September 11.
| Metric | Pre-War Baseline | Current Operating Level |
|---|---|---|
| Middle East Oil Flows (Shell/Kpler) | Pre-war levels | 80% – 92% |
| Saudi East-West Pipeline Throughput | 7.0M barrels/day (Max Capacity) | 5.8 million barrels/day |
| Refined Products (Gasoline/Diesel) | Pre-war levels | ~40% deficit |
| Brent Crude Price Per Barrel | Pre-war levels | ~$100 |
While crude export volumes recover, refined products face severe bottlenecks. Financial projections from JPMorgan published in late September revealed that inventories and transit volumes for finished fuels, such as gasoline and diesel, remain suppressed at roughly 40 percent below pre-war measurements.
Daily Attacks Keep Brent Crude Prices Volatile
Facing mounting economic pressure, Iranian forces and regional proxies have intensified strikes to reclaim dominance over the maritime corridor. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) records show at least one confirmed attack per day since October 2 within the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden.
At least 11 oil tankers have sustained direct attacks in the strait since September 28. This ongoing security friction maintains high volatility in global energy markets, keeping benchmark Brent crude hovering near $100 per barrel.
References
- Shell plc. Global Energy Flow and Market Intelligence Reports.
- Kpler Data Intelligence. Middle East Petroleum Transit Metrics, September 2026.
- United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). Incident Reports Archive, October 2026.
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. Refined Petroleum Products Market Assessment, September 2026.
