The greater opening of the gap that separates the official dollar with the alternative dollars allows for very short-term gains. The risks
By Ruben Ramallo
04/07/2022 – 16,55hs
The distortions that some markets present, such as on this occasion the foreign exchange, from the existence of multiple quotesallows to do what in financial jargon is called “mashed potatoes” or in a more sophisticated way ” arbitrage prices “. The simple coexistence sometimes not so peaceful between the official dollar regulated by the Banco Central, the solidarity, the MEP dollar, the cash with liquidation and finally the blue, gives rise to this type of speculative play, some of them with high yields instant, which can reach around 12%.
Without considering the legality or not of each of these options, for some time now it has been insistently mentioned that under the current market conditions old speculative maneuvers are being reissued, such as the overinvoicing of imports.
In practice, this allows an importer to obtain a certain amount of dollars at the official price, which is then transferred to the marginal segment, which would explain, according to some analysts, that the blue remained practically throughout the first semester without significant variations, since its price was only altered in the last weeks of the month.
Pure dollar versus fixed term
In this case, for example, someone who makes dollars at $126.06 (official wholesaler) can dump them into the marginal market and obtain an immediate profit, which according to calculations would be close to 100%, since they would sell it at a rate of $245 per unit (price that the caves pay for the blue, and that they sell for $260). Of course, this is a business reserved for a few and with a very high risk.
The increase in profitability was immediately noticeable in the influx of customers to the caves
Finally, the most interesting option, but at the same time the most limited due to the amounts at stake, is the one that relates the “solidarity” dollar to the blue dollar. In this case, the lucky person who can access the official market will pay around $218.50 for each one of the $200 that he can buy, so he would be spending about $43,700 total.
If he then sells them on the marginal market and a price of $245 is recognized, he would receive about $49,000 in his hands, so would have won about $5,300which are equivalent to a yield of 12,12%.
Since mid-June, the Central Bank raised the nominal interest rate (TNA) for the fixed term from 48% to 53% per year for the entire financial system. This new return is equivalent to every 30 days pays about 4.4% for the initial amount invested.
This implies that the mashed dollar maneuver yield more than one investment in a traditional fixed term over three months.
Restrictions impact the blue dollar
Although the restrictions to access the solidarity dollar are increasingly high, for a significant number of people it continues to be a strong additional source of income, particularly at times when the gap between the latter and the blue widens, as happened this last week.
The gap between the official dollar, the blue and the MEP allows different maneuvers to be made to achieve a profit
This increase in cost effectiveness It was immediately noted in the influx of customers to the caves, both in the Federal Capital and in Greater Buenos Aires, where this circumstance was much more palpable, since many of them operate directly with premises on the street in which significantly increased the number of people waiting to be served.
Many of them even hope that with the start of the new month and the possibility of buying solidarity dollars again, the influx of customers could climb considerably, which is why in some cases they are planning to set up a greater number of boxes to serve your clientele.