Russia’s Cosmos 2612 satellite closed within roughly three miles of a U.S.-owned ICEYE-X36 imaging satellite in low Earth orbit late this week, sparking fresh security concerns among aerospace trackers.
The tracking data, released by LeoLabs on Friday, revealed a sharp escalation after the two objects were separated by more than 200 miles just a day prior. Space tracking firms note that such behavior is “relatively uncommon” in low Earth orbit, where assets routinely hurtle at speeds near 17,000 miles per hour.
An Unsettling Approach in Low Earth Orbit
While the intent remains uncertain, the rapid closing speed has drawn intense scrutiny from defense analysts. Clayton Swope, a CSIS senior space fellow, described the current separation distance as essentially “bumper-to-bumper.”
🛰️ Russian satellites approaching ICEYE: a closer look at the timeline.Tracking data via @LeoLabs_Space . Analysis via COMSPOC SSA.On April 16, Russia launched six maneuverable satellites (Cosmos 2609-2614) from Plesetsk. Five of them — Cosmos 2610, 2611, 2612, 2613, and 2614… pic.twitter.com/ISoToOptnp
Greg Gillinger, a space analyst with Integrity ISR, told Axios that the sudden shift points to a purposeful engagement between Russian assets and a Western-run satellite supporting Ukraine. The ICEYE-X36 satellite is tied to ICEYE US, and the Finnish-founded company signed a cooperative agreement with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence in January to expand space-based intelligence capabilities.
A Ukrainian official confirmed their military utilizes the Finnish company’s constellation for imagery intelligence, though the official stated they were unaware of the specific satellite’s movements in recent days. However, the military was previously informed of similar maneuvers involving the ICEYE-X36 this past spring and summer.
Weighing the Orbital Risks and Legal Limits
| Date / Event | Details | Source / Observers |
|---|---|---|
| Spring–Summer | Cosmos satellites maneuvered close to Western commercial radar satellites used by Ukraine. | U.S. Space Force / Tracking Data |
| January | ICEYE announced an expanded intelligence agreement with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence. | Company Announcements |
| Friday | Cosmos 2612 closed within roughly three miles of the ICEYE-X36 imaging satellite. | LeoLabs Tracking Data |
Aerospace experts and legal scholars point out that burning the satellite’s fuel to alter orbital altitude, speed, and plane specifically to approach another spacecraft is worrisome. Aaron Brynildson, a space law professor at the University of Mississippi, explained that while there’s no strict legal limit on how close satellites can get to each other, countries generally don’t get closer than six miles.
At any closer distance, if “the target satellite and the pursuing satellite were to move at the same time, the likelihood they could crash into each other increases significantly,” Brynildson said. Despite the growing tension, the U.S. Department of Defense declined to comment on Friday and Saturday, and representatives for ICEYE also declined to comment.
The incident unfolds as Ukraine is dealing with a satellite disruption in real time. Meanwhile, the U.S. military has repeatedly raised alarm over Russia’s development of anti-satellite weaponry.
