Spain’s political parties are realigning as a recent national survey published by EL PAÍS shows the Partido Popular leading at 32.7 percent and Vox rising to 18 percent, while Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE retreats to 26.4 percent, leaving the governing left-wing coalition significantly behind.
Partido Popular Leads as Left-Wing Bloc Hits Historic Lows
The survey data published on Saturday, October 3, captures a consolidated trend across Spain. The Partido Popular, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has solidified its position at the top with 32.7 percent support. Meanwhile, Vox has climbed back to 18 percent. Confirming these shifts with minor percentage variations, a parallel survey by EL MUNDO places the left-wing bloc at historic lows.
The wider center-left coalition, divided between the PSOE at 26.4 percent, Sumar at 5.9 percent, and Podemos at 3.4 percent, rests at a combined 35.7 percent. In sharp contrast, the center-right and right-wing bloc—incorporating the PP, Vox, and other allies such as Se Acabó la Fiesta—surpasses 52 percent of voter preference. Back in 2019, seven years prior, both major political blocks stood tied at 43 percent.
Parliamentary seat projections based on the EL PAÍS survey of 2mila interviews—conducted before the onset of the “Maricarmen case”—illustrate this deep divergence. The Partido Popular is projected to secure 137 seats, and Vox is estimated to win 62 seats. Together, they would cross the 190-seat threshold in a parliament where a 175-seat majority is required. Conversely, the PSOE is projected to hold 107 seats.
| Political Party / Bloc | Polling Percentage | Projected Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular (PP) | 32.7% | 137 |
| Vox | 18% | 62 |
| PSOE (Socialists) | 26.4% | 107 |
| Sumar | 5.9% | Not specified |
| Podemos | 3.4% | Not specified |
| Right-wing Coalition Total | Over 52% | Over 190 |
| Left-wing Coalition Total | 35.7% | Significantly reduced |
Young Voters Favor Vox Amid Housing Crisis
Political friction for Sánchez extends far beyond national polling metrics. Young voters under the age of 25 now favor Vox as their primary political party. Compounding these pressures, the housing crisis and a summer migration surge heavily impacting the enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla have driven public dissatisfaction.
The parliamentary math for the government fractured further on Friday, October 2, when the Catalan independence party Junts voted against two of Sánchez’s key decree laws. Junts has seen its projected seats drop from 35 to 16. At the same time, the pro-independence space faces internal disruption from the far-right Catalan party Aliança Catalana, led by Sílvia Orriols, which surged in the polls from 3.8 percent to 17.9 percent. El Mundo’s parallel polling indicates that roughly 4.7 percent of voters who cast ballots for Sánchez in 2023 would now support Vox leader Santiago Abascal.
Sánchez Calls Early Elections and Resigns
Faced with these severe legislative hurdles and declining numbers, Sánchez chose to initiate consultations with his allies and cabinet, ultimately deciding to call early elections and resign before the natural expiration of his term. Political insiders note that Sánchez is attempting an uphill challenge, hoping for an “acrobatic” recovery comparable to his 2023 campaign, when he overcame an eight-point deficit to close the gap by seven points.
Betting markets on Polymarket currently price Alberto Núñez Feijóo as the frontrunner to take over as prime minister at 88 percent probability. With the political terrain shifting rapidly beneath traditional alliances, voter preferences remain subject to further evolution ahead of the scheduled electoral threshold on November 29.
