The US-Israel war on Iran has disrupted energy flows and pushed governments to reassess their energy security. According to Al Jazeera, fossil fuels still account for nearly 81 percent of global energy consumption, leaving importers highly vulnerable to chokepoint blockades in the Middle East.
The Bottom Line
- Emergency oil cushions are wearing thin, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve hitting its lowest level since 1982.
- Eritrea and Madagascar face the heaviest dependence on Middle Eastern oil, sourcing about 90 percent of their supply from the region.
- South Korea leads Asian gas importers, sourcing 31 percent of the gas it uses from the region.
How the Conflict Constrained Middle Eastern Chokepoints
Al Jazeera noted that prior to the Iran war, nearly 20 percent of liquefied natural gas trade and roughly 27 percent of global seaborne oil trade moved through the Strait of Hormuz. Because the Iran war has extended into other Middle Eastern territories alongside intensified fighting in Yemen’s civil war, both the canal and the strait have experienced reduced vessel traffic, compelling certain petroleum cargoes to take extended paths around Africa.
Richard Matthews, director of consultancy and research at Gibson Shipbrokers, noted the unique vulnerability of the region. “That’s probably the first time we’ve really seen a major constriction of a chokepoint,” Matthews told Al Jazeera, emphasizing that while there are some pipelines, there is no alternative maritime route for the Strait of Hormuz.
Consequently, carriers must navigate longer routes around Africa. These extended voyages add operational costs that suppliers pass down to end-users.
Which Countries Face the Highest Supply Dependency?
Nations relying heavily on Gulf shipments are absorbing immediate cost pressures and scrambling for alternative vendors. Eritrea and Madagascar exhibit the highest reliance on Middle Eastern petroleum, obtaining roughly 90 percent of their imports from that territory according to Al Jazeera figures. Pakistan follows at 78 percent, while Japan and Kenya each rely on the region for 77 percent of their imports.
Finding replacements for natural gas proves harder due to the fact that the bulk of these supplies originates in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar as liquefied gas, passing directly through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian economies bear the brunt of these gas supply restrictions. South Korea relies on the Middle East for 31 percent of its gas, followed by India at 29 percent, Pakistan at 27 percent, and Taiwan at 26 percent.
| Country | Primary Vulnerability | Estimated Regional Dependency Share |
|---|---|---|
| Eritrea | Oil Imports | 90% |
| Madagascar | Oil Imports | 90% |
| Pakistan | Oil & Gas Imports | 78% (Oil) / 27% (Gas) |
| South Korea | Gas Imports | 31% |
How Drained Emergency Reserves Keep Oil Above One Hundred Dollars
Global emergency stockpiles have served as the world’s main cushion during the war. That cushion is now wearing thin.
Western nations have little left to release, and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at its lowest level since 1982. Amin Nasser, head of Saudi Aramco, stated that estimates suggest less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain today, with the vast majority not practically available.
The International Energy Agency released a record 400 million barrels of oil in March. To help lower high diesel costs, the agency is currently arranging the release of an additional 100 million barrels comprising both crude and diesel. Meanwhile, a storm in the Gulf of Mexico combined with attacks in Saudi Arabia continue to threaten supplies, sustaining crude prices above $100 a barrel.
Before this year’s releases, China held the largest reserves, an estimated 1.4 billion barrels. The United States held 413 million barrels, and Japan maintained 263 million barrels.
Why Riyadh Energy Week Advances Despite Security Threats
Despite the volatile security environment, energy ministers and industry leaders convened in Riyadh for the 25th World Petroleum Council Energy Congress. The meeting coincides with the 17th International Energy Forum (IEF) Ministerial, running concurrently as Riyadh Energy Week through Thursday.
The conference follows a Houthi attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh that resulted in 12 fatalities and 309 injuries, according to Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation. The Saudi Ministry of Energy confirmed the proceedings opened as scheduled.
Diplomatic participation reflects the broader friction across global supply lines. Italy, serving as cohost of the IEF, will join the meeting via videolink. Nigeria, the other cohost, is sending a representative to the event.
The IEF represents 68 member countries accounting for more than 90 percent of global oil and gas supplies and demand, including Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Russia. Discussions centre on rebuilding energy security guarantees as disruption to Middle Eastern trade corridors persists.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
